Wrong Priors
نویسنده
چکیده
All priors are not created equal. There are right and there are wrong priors. That is the main conclusion of this contribution. I use, a cooked-up example designed to create drama, and a typical textbook example to show the pervasiveness of wrong priors in standard statistical practice.
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Hierarchical modeling is wonderful and here to stay, but hyperparameter priors are often chosen in a casual fashion. Unfortunately, as the number of hyperparameters grows, the effects of casual choices can multiply, leading to considerably inferior performance. As an extreme, but not uncommon, example use of the wrong hyperparameter priors can even lead to impropriety of the posterior. For exch...
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